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3. How big, how dangerous?

Pieter Bottelier, SAIS

No single reliable source on China’s total debt and its composition. Estimates range from 247% to close to 300% of GDP—but is this dangerous?
At what level of overall debt may a debt crisis occur? Hard to say.
Some countries with lower overall debt level than China have experienced debt crises. Others with a higher level (e.g. Japan) haven’t.
Comment: Most debt crises start with liquidity problems. Although China has some unique features, this could also happen in China.